60th Anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis Finds Communist Island in Deepest Crisis Ever, Part I

Luis Martínez-Fernández
Fri, 07 Oct 2022 21:00:00 -0700
Opinion

Sixty years ago, on Oct. 22, President John F. Kennedy addressed the nation on TV with dire warnings about the buildup of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba, weapons capable of causing massive casualties and destruction within a 1,000-mile radius — striking distance to Washington, D.C. and the entire Southeast of the United States. On that occasion, JFK announced several military measures, including an offensive weapons quarantine around Cuba.

The World stood on the brink of nuclear war for 13 long days until the United States and the Soviet Union negotiated a peaceful end to the crisis that included, much to Fidel Castro's chagrin, the removal of all Soviet missiles from the socialist island.
Updated: Sat Oct 08, 2022

Sixty years ago, on Oct. 22, President John F. Kennedy addressed the nation on TV with dire warnings about the buildup of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba, weapons capable of causing massive casualties and destruction within a 1,000-mile radius — striking distance to Washington, D.C. and the entire Southeast of the United States. On that occasion, JFK announced several military measures, including an offensive weapons quarantine around Cuba.

The World stood on the brink of nuclear war for 13 long days until the United States and the Soviet Union negotiated a peaceful end to the crisis that included, much to Fidel Castro's chagrin, the removal of all Soviet missiles from the socialist island.

Fast forward 60 years and 11 U.S. presidents. With Vladimir Putin hurling threats that he will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine ("This is not a bluff," he insisted), this week President Joe Biden stated that "We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis." There is no such thing, Biden reiterated, "as the ability to easily use a tactical weapon and not end up with Armageddon."

There are several parallels between the 1962 missile crisis and the current situation. Both conflicts brought the United States and Russia (the bulk of the former Soviet Union) close to war. On both occasions, Cuba was dragged into the confrontation between two global powers and was pulled closer to Russia which dangled the carrot of heavily subsidized oil shipments to further align Cuba on its side.

Some major differences stand out, however. In 1962, under Fidel Castro, the Cuban regime was politically stable and the economy, while not prosperous, was also stable. And Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev remained a rational player throughout the crisis. Today, in contrast, Cuba is ruled by an increasingly unpopular leadership headed by President Miguel Diaz-Canel and faces a seemingly unsurmountable economic and political crisis. And Russia's President Putin has demonstrated erratic behavior and shown signs of mental instability, megalomania and paranoia.

His Cuban allies appear to face imminent regime implosion. Cuba's coffers are empty, and the communist regime is unable to provide the population with its basic needs including food, medicine, electricity, public transportation and even trash removal. Long neglected, Cuba's infrastructure is in disrepair and the collapse of inhabited buildings has become an almost daily occurrence.

POPULAR MASS PROTESTS BEGAN IN 2020 AND 2021

Since the spontaneous and unprecedented Havana Malecon (seawall) riot of August 1994, Cuba had not witnessed large antigovernment manifestations until November 2020, when around 200 artists and intellectuals of the San Isidro Movement staged a protest in front of the Ministry of Culture. The government immediately unleashed its repressive forces to suppress the movement and its supporters.

Even more unprecedented were the mass street protests of July 11-14, 2021, when several thousand engaged in peaceful demonstrations in over 30 cities and towns. While the regime's shortcomings during the COVID-19 pandemic sparked this round of protests, Cuban citizens also protested shortages of food and basic necessities, chanting "Libertad! Libertad! Libertad!" and Diaz-Canel's newly minted nickname, homophone to the Chinese beer Tsingtao.

In my July 17, 2021, column, I issued a warning to dictator Diaz-Canel: "(He) will regret his infamous July 12 televised harangue" in which he ordered "revolutionaries" to fight in the streets.

Cuban state repressors included members of the National Revolutionary Police, Black Beret brigades of the Interior Ministry, bands of club-toting civilians sanctioned by the state and even — the unprecedented — military units commanded by Minister of the Revolutionary Armed Forces General Alvaro Lopez Miera. The Cuban military had historically been held in high esteem among Cubans precisely because they had never raised a finger against the civilian population. That changed on that fateful week in July 2021.

Not a few members of Cuba's high-ranking officers opposed this new role. I shy away, as much as possible, from conspiracy theories, but would be remiss if I failed to mention that between July 11 and 26, a total of five active or retired generals died. By July of the following year, another nine generals had perished, including 62-year-old General Luis Alberto Rodriguez Lopez-Calleja. Because of his family ties with Raul Castro (the general was formerly married to Castro's daughter), his key role in the Communist Party's Politburo, and his position as executive president of the Business Administration Group (GAESA), Rodriguez Lopez-Calleja was considered Cuba's second most powerful man.

Cuban generals, of course, are not immortal. They die like everyone else, but five within 16 days, and another nine in the following twelve months, is a statistical anomaly, particularly because the military brass has access to the best hospitals and medical care as well as vaccines and other anti-COVID-19 treatments and medications.

To be continued.